Courtship Poker and the 27.5 Rule

If you have never played poker before, you should definitely try. Beyond the money and cards, it's also a game of acting, statistics and psychology. And the key here is that you have to do anything quick and with credibility, even if you are not 100% sure that it is the right move, because your display can instill fear and create doubts, tilting reactions in your favor.

With an unbelievable good hand, you should play the field on the double or more since you will be guaranteed at least 50% return on your bet even with just one other player in the game. And if he follows you stupidly till the bitter end, then you'll effectively double your money and finish him off, assuming that everyone starts off with an equal amount of money. What's more, if you are playing a fantastic hand with two other players, you will double your bet if they all fold and quadruple it if they all follow and needless to say, the more players in this situation, the better. But acting also helps. Everyone loves to be the hero to catch a bluff, and that's the only way they will continue with you till the bitter end and make you a very rich man. Hence, arrogance on this hand will work in your favor. However, it is also important to raise the stakes in amounts that others can follow, thus enticing them to grow your pool of returns.

However, when faced with a bad hand and the cards are stacked out against you, what do you do? The game is not as straight forward here but this is also your chance to build for the next better hand. You have essentially three options: (1) be realistic about it and fold early, protecting your capital (2) make the bluff and get caught intentionally, displaying arrogance in the process to support your next good hand or (3) do the bluff all the way with outstanding calmness and poise, totally different from the display you put on with a good hand earlier, and count on the stats to win. Which plan you choose will depend on how much capital you have at the moment, how many rounds more to go in the game and whether it is possible to switch to another table and start all over again.

Basically, you would want to fold early if there aren't many rounds left and you have a tidy sum that you don't want to lose. If you have already amassed a tidy sum before and the game is till young, then to win big you should let a bluff go and lose a bit. And if you think this table is getting a hang on what your strategy is after this bluff, then you should totally put every bit of acting into that last bluff and hopefully pull it off before moving off to another table if possible.

I wouldn't say that my above strategy will work with everyone but it has certainly worked against pretty smart people, which is one of the reasons why I have enjoyed poker. But lately I have also realized that it'll work in relationships too. This came a little unexpected because it suddenly dawned on me while chatting with a friend that there are certain 'variables' in BGR that would influence the outcome of one's love life making it very much like poker.

Picture this: The floor consists of many poker tables with a fixed female dealer each and the players are all guys. Now, each guy has just one aim: to beat the competition at a selected table after a certain number of rounds and win over the house with their available capital. The dealer then deals out a set of community cards and ‘Courtship Poker’ begins. There are two key variables here for a start: the capital and the two cards that each player possesses per round. In a BGR, the former is made up of obvious assets, like looks, physical abilities and wealth; and the latter obscure, consisting of human traits like intellect, ambition, narcissism, lust etc. The obscure cards can either complete a certain suit or combination with the dealer's community cards or not at all; a metaphor for criteria matching between a man and a woman.

Now, the first twist is that each player's gaming capital is uneven at the onset due to discrepancies in looks, physical abilities and wealth, either inherited or self-made. And this makes 'Courtship Poker' slightly less interesting than the original Texas Hold'em because the more capital one has, the more bluffs he can pull off by jacking up the stakes, making the round riskier and causing his poorer rivals to fold. This is obviously unfair and not a good way to play a game. But a courtship with multiple guys going for a girl's hand is never a fair game in the first place. Everyone has their own level of disposable capital and it is not surprising that rich boys have it easy most of the time. This is largely because the spare capacity they have to splash around scares off competitors as one has to risk a large proportion of his capital to catch the bluff - the lack of positive obscure traits to bring into a relationship, which is obviously an issue. With uneven capital at the onset, wouldn't the rich boys always win simply by dumping his chips in? Well, that would indeed be the case for earlier rounds of the game; a metaphor for the school-going period of a man's life. At this point, only those as rich as the rich kid; may it be any other players, or maybe even the dealer herself, can comfortably call his bluffs (if the girl catches the bluff, then she'll remain single). If not, the rich kid will certainly win the round and walk away with the girl (Be mindful that this is not equal to winning the game, it's just a round). And that is most likely the case since one has to be sure that his/her hand (traits) will combine with the community cards to a better suit than the bluff before risking capital to catch it, which forms a doubt one has to fight when the stakes are high.

To solve this seemingly injustice, we have the second twist: each player will gain or lose some capital relative to his rivals with the hand he has per round. Should a player have a fantastic hand in this round, let's say he is clever, confident and has solid ambitions, the next round he will receive more capital since he is more likely to improve his wardrobe, toughen up and succeed in his career. On the contrary, if a player has a real lousy hand this round, let's say he is lazy, proud and stupid, then he will not be very productive and his capital will be increased at a slower rate than his rivals, or maybe reduced as well. Therefore, the capital of each player will vary as the game proceeds.

The third twist, unfortunately for the ladies, is that as the game proceeds, the dealer's capital will be unavoidably reduced. Remember that capital consists of obvious assets such as looks, physical endowment and wealth. The inconvenient truth here is that all ladies have a ticking physical clock within their wombs and that clock gives rise to the fact that beauty fades as time goes by, which then accounts for the reduction in their capital. Of course, with great hands in every round a lady can still cover that loss with accumulated wealth, via spending on cosmetic surgeries, botox and what not. But eventually, and sadly, the clock runs out and it will become prohibitively expensive to maintain existing capital. This thus gives rise to the 27.5 rule, which is the age that an average girl living in a developed society will start to experience a fall in capital, like the parabolic curve depicted below.

Of course, some girls are able to prolong this turning point till somewhere later like 35 or something but 27.5 is the most reasonable turning point. This is because girls within a developed society will like to have both career and family and most will prefer a baby or more before 35 due to the fact that (1) any older and there will be an insurmountable age gap between mother and child and that (2) their careers will not be moribund because of frequent maternity leaves and school problems. From here, a girl will then prefer to get married before 29 so that there are at least two years of couple-hood before the first born. And since most girls would also like a proper courtship prior to marriage as well, which requires a reasonable 1.5 years, we have 27.5 as the turning point - the age that many girls will reduce their desires to win rounds since their abilities to do so (capital) are permanently declining.

With this set up, it seems logical for the rich guys to do nothing but bluff in the earlier rounds, leaving the poor guys, albeit with good hands, behind in the competition since they have limited capital to call bluffs at a table in these early stages. So, good but poor guys fold, while lousy but rich guys bluff and win unless the dealer calls the bluff. In this case, most bidders are always poisons in disguise. This is a typical lemon’s problem and the only way to resolve this for an average girl with average capital is to do a show hand and try to call the bluff. However, most girls will rather be bluffed since the average person is more likely risk-averse, hence getting into relationships that they’ll find unsuitable and not worth the effort eventually.

However, the dynamics of the game will change as it progresses since the comparative capital of the dealer and guys that have nothing but bluffs will decrease and that of guys with good hands will increase as depicted below.


Let’s assume two players, one capital rich and lousy, one capital poor but good at a table with a female dealer all of the same age. At the height of her capital curve, the average female is bound to call bluffs since she has the required capital to match the rich but lousy player. At age 27.5, the poor but good guy should already have a certain career path and will also be able to call bluffs with accumulated capital. Hence, we will see a relationship shakeout during this round as the rich but lousy players are taken out of the picture. Of course, the Lousy Hands curve depicted above may have underestimated many rich but lousy guys out there, though the prediction of a relationship shakeout is still valid when the Lousy Hands curve intersects with the Good Hands curve as time progresses.

This means that players with lousy hands should simply jack up the stakes earlier on to support bluffs and players with good hands should wait out and then call bluffs during later rounds with more capital. Nonetheless, even though players with majority lousy hands will eventually suffer a drop in comparative capital, they could still hold on to their prizes from earlier rounds for as long as they can combine acting and statistics and use them to support his bluffs, especially if he had one or two good hands in the past and had used them wisely as per the normal poker strategy outlined in the beginning of this article. This will effectively push out the Lousy Hands curve, allowing him to delay the shakeout (and possibly lock in the relationship with a family). Ladies at the later stage of the game, unfortunately, will be totally dependent on a white-knight and guys with majority good hands should maintain their grounds during these rounds and not be afraid to call bluffs if the table offers a healthy sum in the pool i.e. the girl is worth your effort.

Regardless, the central tendency of humans is to be cautious. Some shun risks all together while others take calculated risks. This is why a white-knight is no guarantee for many ladies, especially those manning tables with low pools of money not high enough to compensate white-knights for their risks towards the mid to late rounds. However, ladies can unilaterally ensure that stakes remain high when they able to reduce the rate of their permanent capital decline. Therefore, capital effective vanity is a necessary skill that ladies should acquire after their turning point at 27.5 years old. This means that girls should establish a decent paying career that can help fund a certain style that’s cheap to maintain and yet appealing to guys. Easier said than done, and that’s the pain of being a woman really.

After reviewing the variables of ‘Courtship Poker’ and the three twists it has, it is my belief that (1) rich and lousy guys must bluff with conviction and normal poker strategies after jacking up the stakes fail to work in the later rounds (2) poor but good guys must wait out till they establish their careers and not be afraid to call bluffs towards the later rounds and (3) ladies should stay single if they could earlier on but most importantly, they should acquire capital effective vanity skills which will then assure a rescue from a white-knight later on in the game.

Since I'm a poor guy (good or not is not for me to say), I'm afraid I'll have wait out till 27.5 at least. My poor and good fellas out there, stop tormenting yourself with wasteful BGR problems and move on! However, if you like challenges, I would say go to a table without much rich kids and you'll probably stand a chance there. And if you don't trust this analysis, let me just put up some statistics here that support the above conclusions:

As of 18 August 2007:

Agree:

Guys - 5
Gals - 1

Disagree:

Guys - 1
Gals - 0

Please feel free to cast your vote under comments.